The National Oceanography Centre (NOC) has published a study in Communications Earth and Environment on the long-term changes in storm patterns across Europe.
Europe’s changing storm climate
To gain a clearer understanding of Europe’s changing storm climate, the scientists used barometric pressure data from sites around the English Channel, reaching as far back as the late stages of the Little Ice Age (a period of cooler climate in the North Atlantic Region between the 14th and 19th centuries) to construct what they claim to be the longest-ever instrument-based storm series.
The study reveals for the first time that the increased winter storminess experienced over the last 30 years is similar in frequency and intensity to that experienced in the late 19th century. However, it also reveals crucial differences between the periods. The study shows that the increase in storminess since the 1990s has been confined to winter, which correlates with a strengthening and north-eastward shift of the North Atlantic jet stream.
The researchers point out that this contrasts with conditions during the early 19th century, when increased storminess extended into spring and autumn. There were even significant stormy summer seasons during that time – such as the notorious year-without-a-summer of 1816 – which have become much less likely to occur in modern times.
Research context
The team took up this research due to the several stormy autumn-winter seasons in Europe in the past decade, particularly the severe 2021/2022 season, which had a sequence of intense low-pressure systems crossing the region that caused wind damage, transportation disruption and coastal storm surges. They highlight that the winter of 2013/2014 was also significant, with data indicating that the conditions experienced were unprecedented in the previous 150 years.
Additionally, thanks to historical accounts and other sources, scientists have known for years that the 1790-1820s was a particularly stormy period in Europe. The researchers on this project sought to understand how this relates to today’s storm patterns.
Dr Richard Cornes, marine climatologist at NOC and lead author of the study, said, “Further work is required to determine the potential mechanisms responsible for the observed changes. A particularly important line of investigation, in light of the findings of our paper, is the relative impact of natural versus anthropogenic aerosols on storminess across Europe. We hope that understanding these mechanisms will ultimately lead to improvements in the predictions of storm patterns.”
In related news, the NOC has begun a three-year project to navigate underwater gliders through the North Sea taking measurements – such as salinity and temperature – for the Met Office in near real time. Click here to read the full story.