Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service have reported the number of expected named storms in the Atlantic with winds of 39mph to be 13-18 in this year’s hurricane season (June 1-November 30), with 5-9 expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater) and 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111mph or greater).
According to NOAA, the predictions remain in line with its previous forecast in May and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed. In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.
“NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property and communities,” said acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm. “As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued.”
Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be elevated due to a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas and an active West African Monsoon, NOAA reports. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Nino nor La Nina to influence this season’s storm activity.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.
NOAA’s outlook for a below-average Eastern Pacific season – with 12-18 named storms – remains on track, but it did have a rapid start with nine named storms. The Central Pacific outlook remains unchanged, predicting 1-4 named storms.
In related news, in a bid to better serve communities in Latin America and the Caribbean, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has launched a LinkedIn channel in Spanish to bring trusted climate, weather and water information to Spanish-speaking audiences across the region. Read the full story