According to an AccuWeather report, the 2024 spring severe weather season will include a greater threat of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes across the USA than the 2023 season.
The AccuWeather team is predicting 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes across the USA in 2024. The forecast is above the historical average of 1,225 twisters per year, but below the 1,423 that were reported across the USA last year.
The long-range forecasters found that the Great Lakes, the Gulf of Mexico, and the return of La Niña will be the major factors that affect the 2024 severe weather season.
The spring weather patterns are expected to promote more severe weather in the classic Tornado Alley, which spans from Texas through Nebraska. Tornadoes could also spin up more frequently in California in 2024.
The majority of tornadoes in 2023 touched down outside of the traditional Tornado Alley, especially in March and April 2024, when most severe weather impacted areas from the Midwest through the Tennessee Valley. In total, 206 tornadoes were reported across the USA in March 2023, more than double the monthly historical average of 80. AccuWeather meteorologists are therefore warning families and businesses to review emergency plans and prepare storm shelters.
Paul Pastelok, lead long-range US forecaster at AccuWeather, said, “The 2024 severe weather season could get off to a slow start, but it could prove to be much different than last year. The threat for tornadoes and damaging storms will escalate after reaching the midpoint of the season. Any strong system can produce a couple of tornadoes, mainly EF0 intensity, but an EF1 or EF2 cannot be ruled out.”
“The second half of spring is jumping out to us,” said Pastelok. “The severe weather threat can be more frequent in the Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio valleys in later March into May, while the northern Plains and Northeast can have an increase in May.”
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