Dr Xiaowei Tan from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre and her colleagues have recently published a paper titled Typhoon Kompasu (2118) simulation with planetary boundary layer and cloud physics parameterization improvements in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. Their study introduces a new parameterization scheme for friction velocity at the ocean surface and a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization scheme into the CMA-TYM operational model, replacing the original schemes.
Analyzing current extreme tropical cyclone methodology
When publishing the report, the researchers highlighted the importance of continuously improving numerical models and their capacity to forecast typhoon tracks and intensities.
They also assert that while the accuracy of typhoon track forecasts using numerical models has gradually improved since 1990, the improvement in intensity forecasts has been slow.
Advantages of new parameterization schemes
According to the research team, the statistical results show that both parameterization schemes improve the predictions of Typhoon Kompasu’s track and intensity. Additional analysis revealed that these two schemes affect the timing and magnitude of extreme tropical cyclone intensity values by influencing the evolution of the tropical cyclone’s warm-core structure.
Moreover, this study also suggests a novel approach for evaluating tropical cyclone forecasting capabilities by incorporating the error in the timing of peak intensity into model verification. This comprehensive evaluation method could provide valuable insights, the researchers says, aiding in the further refinement of numerical models and ultimately enhancing the ability to predict and respond to typhoons more effectively.
In related news, the School of Atmospheric Sciences at Nanjing University, China, and the Earth System Numerical Prediction Center of the CMA have recently published a paper that posits that AI could replace numerical weather models. Click here to read the full story.