A team from the Climate Adaptation Services Foundation, the University of Reading and other international institutions has published a study in Nature Communications which brings together methods to see beyond the limitations of conventional weather records, which typically only cover the past century.
The researchers identified four approaches that together create a more complete picture of possible extreme weather: analyzing conventional records; studying historical and natural archives like tree rings; creating “what-if” scenarios based on past events and historical documents; and using climate models to simulate physically possible extremes.
Timo Kelder, lead author, said, “We’ve been limited by thinking extreme weather is only as bad as what we’ve measured since weather stations were invented. But our research shows we can use weather models to look back hundreds or even thousands of years to discover what’s truly possible in our climate system.”
A toolkit for scientists and practitioners
According to the researchers, tree rings have proved especially valuable. With each ring preserving a year’s worth of climate history, the team used these natural time capsules to reconstruct 850 years of drought patterns in northwestern China, revealing extreme events that would have been invisible in modern records.
The team also highlighted forgotten weather extremes by digging through historical archives. They found that June 1846 in Durham, UK, was significantly hotter than any modern June temperature. Similarly, September 1774 in Oxford was wetter than any month recorded in the 250 years since.
Adapt, adapt, adapt
The study emphasizes that with these methods to anticipate the unseen, communities can better prepare for unprecedented weather. The methods can support three layers of preparation: improved early warning systems; upgraded infrastructure; and transformative social changes to reduce vulnerability.
The researchers conclude that by breaking free from the constraints of limited modern records, we can stop being surprised by “unprecedented” weather events.
Dorothy Heinrich, co-author at the University of Reading, said, “Unprecedented weather doesn’t just break records – it breaks communities, infrastructure and lives. When the unimaginable happens, being unprepared is a disaster waiting to unfold. But science can help us to imagine the unimaginable, to uncover these risks, and prepare. Our future depends on how quickly and thoroughly we adapt today.”
In related news, the University of Reading recently found that the key to more accurate rainfall predictions may lie in motion analysis of falling snowflakes. Click here to read the full story.